The Main Event
UPDATE: Here is the radar showing the front just north of Pt. Conception, with pre-frontal precip. extending down to about LAX. The orographics in the Santa Monica, San Gabriel and San Bernardino Mtns are apparent as well:
Today’s showers were just a precursor to tonight/tomorrow’s main event. Pre-frontal precipitation has already spread as far south as Santa Monica, fueled mostly by orographics, and some mechanical advection provided by the coast. The southward extent of this precipitation will slowly push into Orange County, affecting the mountain areas first before spilling toward the coast, as the front to our north advances.
The big question about the impacts of this storm still remains: How far south will the front make it before it falls apart? Right now, it seems to be maintaining good forward speed, but is forecast to slow down into the overnight. How far south it makes it will determine whether we get a tenth of an inch or a full inch of rain. Splitting the difference, Scott and I are both in consensus that we should probably get somewhere around 1/4″ to 1/3″ of an inch (I’m the optimist at the 1/3).
Cloud bases have begun to lower through the afternoon. As you can see on the satellite image, the approaching front is pulling up a lot of subtropical moisture out ahead of it. If you look directly offshore from us you see the gathering moisture as it is pulled into the system. Despite a potential northward stalling front, the presence of this moisture, and a very wet atmosphere should be enough to wring out some rain overnight.
Look for rain to be on the increase into the overnight, with a possible tapering off late tomorrow morning…
-Mike
