Tuesday and Wednesday
Synopsis: A plume of moisture is moving across central California. Uplift is associated with the jet dynamics and orography. The central California coast will pickup some decent totals on Tuesday. For us, there are no upper-level dynamics to speak of and none are expected with this system at our location. However, there is plenty of moisture. Thus, we have seen a brief light shower or two…..but, not enough to soak the ground. For Tuesday, I expect more clouds with a chance of a brief light shower (mainly against the foothills and mountains) with high temperatures near 70°F. However, ground-soaking rain has more of a chance on Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. A surface front passage is projected for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. This front will provide the surface convergence we need to convert that large fetch of moisture (orange arrow on water vapor imagery below) into rain. Moisture availability will compensate (somewhat) the lack of upper-level dynamics so, the rain will still be likely. Could we get a 1/4″?
With a lack of upper-level dynamics, the mountains will provide the uplift. So, areas just to the west of foothills and mountains and in the mountains themselves will see more rain.
Tuesday morning’s sounding (San Diego) shows a saturated level from 760m to 2200m!
