Sprinklers or Not?

Scott and I have been watching this developing system for a few days, and I think now, with some confidence, we can say that it is likely to rain Tuesday night through Thursday AM. There is a big, broad low pressure developing in the northeast Pacific (associated with a strengthening Aleutian Low). The low will continue to dig a trough out of the jet, as well as slowly push eastward. As it does, it actually entrains an impressive fetch of tropical moisture.

The broad area of vorticity will start to consolidate and push eastward by Tuesday. As it does so, a surface low is projected to develop just off the Northern Washington coast. The low will generate a vigorous surface front that will drape southward all the way to Southern California.

Favorable jet conditions will deliver a whopping amount of rain and snow to the Sierras, and possibly the Santa Barbara area. Our locations looks to be just barely south of the major precipitation, but as of now, the frontal passage should be slow, and bring with it a solid potential for some significant accumulation (for us, anyway). It’s much too early to be able to predict exactly how much, and when.

For now, here’s what we know:

Rain begins along the central coast Monday night into Tuesday morning. The slow moving front may reach Orange County by rush hour on Tuesday. As it does so, the front will weaken, and may not ever *really* reach San Diego. Rain should taper off by Wednesday evening.

Again, this is preliminary, and will likely be amended. Stay tuned for updates!

-Mike