Here’s a link to a preliminary storm report on Noel’s damage as of 330pm EDT Saturday Nov. 3rd. I expect this list to grow exponentially in the next 24 hours as Noel barrels up the coast. At this hour Hyannis, MA , a resort town on the Cape has recorded 1.50″ of rain from Noel. Expect this number to at least double by day’s end.
NWS Taunton, Prelim Storm Report
-Mike
The very strong former Hurricane Noel has begun its assault on New England — pushing heavy showers into the Cape area early this morning, and now pushing showers Westward into Connecticut and Western Massachusetts. Heavy rain should spread slowly through the Connecticut River Valley and gradually taper to showers late this evening as Noel pulls northward and hammers Maine. I expect Noel’s strengthening low pressure center to make “landfall” in downeast Maine before barreling northward into Nova Scotia. Tropical storm and Hurricane force winds can be expected. As of 12:30pm EDT portions of the Cape have seen winds gusts over 40mph. As the afternoon wears on expect the winds to increase and conditions to worsen until Noel’s low pressure center finally begins to pull northward. I’m still going for peak gusts in the Cape area to approach 80 mph.
Here’s a radar showing the heavy, steady rain pushing into New England:
As Noel moves North I expect him to impact Maine in a similar fashion as he impacted the Cape. The far Eastern portions of Maine should see 2-4″ of rain, and 40-60 mph winds with gusts to 80 mph. The rest of Maine, from the NH coast to Bar Harbor should see anywhere from 1-2″ (w/ locally higher amounts) and 20-40 mph winds, with gusts to 60mph. New Hampshire will also get anywhere from 0.50-1.5″ of rain, and moderately strong winds gusting to 40-50 mph. By tomorrow morning, Noel will have pulled completely North, leaving rain continuing only in the far northeastern portions of Maine. He will impact Nova Scotia similarly, as the low pressure will continue to strengthen through about noon tomorrow.
As of this time, former Hurricane Noel’s minimum central pressure has been recorded as 973mb, ranking him as equally strong as the “Perfect Storm” of 1991, with a central pressure of 972mb.
-Mike
Noel continues to chug northward toward New England, and as it does so, continues to strengthen. Noel is no longer a hurricane, but is still packing hurricane-force winds. It has grown in size, and is essentially a really large, really strong nor’easter. Reiterating my warnings from before:
Cape Cod: 2-4″ rain, 40-60 mph winds (80 mph gusts), coastal flooding at high tide
Boston-Providence Corridor: 1.5-2.5″ rain, 30-50 mph winds (60 mph gusts), coastal flooding at high tide
Eastern CT: 1-2″ rain, 20-40 mph winds (50 mph gusts), coastal flooding along New London shore area.
Western CT: 0.25-1″ rain, 10-20 mph winds (30 mph gusts), coastal flooding, especially NYC to New London
Anyone east of the CT line should be wary of fallen power lines, trees, and flooded streets/rivers. Tropical moisture continues to stream northward into the core of Ex-Hurricane Noel. Jet enhancement and steep thermal gradients will enhance precipitation and strengthen Noel’s core. I expect a core Low pressure of ~970 mb by the time it passes Southeast of Cape Cod. While not a hurricane anymore — Noel will continue to pack a major punch. Tomorrow morning I will update thoroughly on the situation.
I expect the initial rain band to spread into the area early tomorrow morning — say 5-6am, Saturday morning. Winds will begin a little earlier.
Here’s an water vapor image showing the current position of the storm and the stream of tropical moisture being entrained:
-Mike
The 12Z run of the GFS is done, and here is my (tentatively) final forecast on what to expect from Noel:
High clouds begin to spill into New England Saturday morning as high pressure translates north. Jet Max passing overhead will also shift northward, putting New England in the region of convergence (the lower right flank of the jet max). A cold front approaching from the Northwest will pull the 540 thickness line down through Buffalo, setting up a good thermal gradient between approaching Noel and the first Canadian air mass of the season.
By Saturday afternoon, the combination of jet-enhanced convergence and thermal contrast should pull the main band of rain counterclockwise around Noel, putting New England right in the path of the heaviest rain. As the band swings around it will also pull a very warm, tropical air mass with it, setting up an even steeper thermal gradient, allowing for the storm to violently pile water up along the Western CT, New York City, Northwestern Long Island shoreline. Initial rain estimates put Cape Cod in a region of 2-4″ with locally higher amounts (up to 6″ in places), and Eastern CT in the 1-2″ range. Rainfall will gradually fall off to about 0.50″ in Western CT. Rain should taper off Saturday night into Sunday morning. Sunday morning will be a very cold wake-up, with temperatures dipping well into the 30s in the colder valleys (i.e. Ellington or UConn) as the cold pool from Canada begins to spill in behind Noel.
Winds will howl initially from the Northeast, switching to North, and finally switching to Northwest as the storm pulls north Saturday night/Sunday morning. 850 mb winds look to be on the order of 40 kts in W. Conn. to over 70 kts. over Cape Cod. The combination of the low level push of moisture eastward and the rotation of the main convection around the center, should actually work to shift the region of strongest winds south of New England, which is good news. The “eye” of Noel could actually pass over the outer banks of Cape Cod, so they may see a period of very calm winds late Sat. afternoon. Nevertheless, the suspect winds to reach ~30 mph in Eastern Connecticut, and up to 60 mph over Cape Cod, with gusts to 80 mph. The rough terrain of Western CT should disperse any downward momentum from the upper-level winds, but it’s not out of the question, that winds could gust in the 30mph range as far west as Danbury.
All in all, I’ve divided it up into three regions:
Western CT: Winds North, 10-20 mph, gusts to 40 mph
Rainfall 0.25 – 0.75″
Coasts: Watch for strong storm surge from NYC through New Haven
Eastern CT/Boston: Winds: North, 20-40 mph, gusts to 50 mph
Rainfall 0.75 – 1.75″ with locally higher amounts
Coasts: CT coasts should be OK, but Boston north-facing shores could see
very strong storm surge.
Cape Cod: Winds: North, 40-60 mph, gusts to 80 mph
Rainfall 2.0 – 4.0″ with locally higher amounts
Coasts: Strong storm surge on North and East facing coasts.
Beach erosion likely.
Here’s a good graphic I put together:
Check back for updates
-Mike
It’s been over a decade since a hurricane slammed the Northeastern US. This may be the year. Technically, however, it may not. Why? Noel right now is packing winds of 80 mph (hurricane force) and continues to chug northeastward over the open Atlantic. However, he is beginning to look less like a tropical system and more like an extra-tropical system. It is therefore likely that the National Hurricane Center will strip Noel of his tropical designation before he slams into Cape Cod tomorrow. HOWEVER, Noel will still be packing hurricane force winds, and a massive swath of moisture. Therefore, Noel looks to brush the Northeast US on Saturday before slamming into Nova Scotia Sunday as a VERY STRONG extra-tropical system. The minimum central pressure of Noel is 981 mb, suggesting that tropical storm force winds could extend as far east as Eastern Connecticut (my hometown!). Very heavy rain will fall from Eastern CT through Boston, with 2-4 inches expected. Some places on the Cape could see as much as 6″ before the storm is through.
Here’s an image showing Noel’s center, and growing swath of moisture, and the direction it’s heading:
Nova Scotia will probably take a VERY HARD hit from this storm. Interests there should pay close attention to local watches and warnings. Ex-Hurricane Noel will, by then, be still packing winds greater than 75 mph, and bringing with him a huge slug of moisture that could dump anywhere from 3-10″ locally.
-Mike
A late season Hurricane continues to barrel northward, parallel to the Eastern Seaboard. Noel has recently become a hurricane, with maximum winds near 75 mph. He is taking AIM on Eastern Canada (of all places) and should make a landfall in Newfoundland within the next 2-3 days. By then he will most likely be extratropical. Nevertheless, he will be an extremely powerful extratropical storm! The Atlantic Hurricane season ends November 30. This season has had a lot of named storms, but not many became hurricanes. (only 5 hurricanes total). While not unprecendeted, it is rare that we see Hurricanes in the Atlantic basin in November. Especially since the last few weeks have seen strong trough-ing over the East Coast (strong sheer, not good hurricane development environment). Here’s a satellite photo showing Noel currently:
-Mike
Noel is now moving to the north just to the east of Florida. As anticipated, convection remains in the northeastern quadrant (rain rate mm/hr shown below).
Noel continues to display persistent convection in its northeast flank (circled in cyan). Noel’s center is circled in yellow. Noel continues to be plagued with northwesterly wind shear to its west (over Florida). Upper level winds are denoted by red arrows and lower level winds, blue.
This storm will begin to turn to the north this afternoon and take a path to the east of Florida over the next day. As stated before, convection will be limited to its northeastern flank and Florida will experience winds out of the northwest backing to the west with southeastern Florida experiencing most of the precipitation as it passes by.
The image below shows rain rates in mm/hr. Notice the large, intense area of rain (>25 mm/hr) that popped-up early this morning just to the north of Cuba. This was associated with a large convective cell with plenty of upper level diffluence.
Northwesterly shear will continue to keep most of the convection associated with tropical storm Noel in the northeastern quadrant (see image below). This is good news for Florida. Additionally, interaction with land will limit growth.
Noel will continue to move to the west-northwest over the next day and maintain a center over Cuba. Noel’s trajectory will change overnight Wednesday as a trough moving in from the west will eject it to the northeast and create an intense finger of northwesterly shear. It will move just to the east of Florida. Convection and rainfall will be limited to Noel’s eastern side (which is good news for Florida). However, strong northwesterly winds will occur late Wednesday and last into Thursday across Florida.
A disturbance in the southwestern Gulf has some potential this morning and could become more organized as the day progresses. Note the intense convection to its north associated with a frontal boundary. An active storm track to the north continues to maintain an unfavorable environment for hurricane development. It is possible that this system could reach depression status. However, growth beyond that is not anticipated.
